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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Analysts Says Shoppers May Turn to PS3, Xbox 360 for Gaming Fix




Nintendo vs. Sony: Will Wii Shortages be PS3's Gain?


As the holiday shopping season heats up this week, the hopes of many video-game-greedy kids may be dashed as shortages of Nintendo's Wii force parents to turn to other gaming consoles, such as the PlayStation 3 or the Xbox 360, to fill the gap, analysts say.



But according to analysts, the hopes of those game-greedy kids may be dashed this season as parents, faced with predicted Wii shortages, might turn to other gaming consoles, such as the Sony's PlayStation 3 or Microsoft's Xbox 360, to fill the gap.



Sony Hopes to Benefit
Sony CEO Howard Stringer is counting on impatient consumers who won't be able to wait for their gaming fix.


Along with the chronic shortage of its competitors' stock, the PlayStation 3's recent $100 price cut has made Sony's console more competitive with the Wii, Stringer told The Associated Press last week.


Shortages of the Wii, Nintendo's latest video game juggernaut and currently the best-selling console in the nation, are nothing new. When the game debuted in 2006, many early adopters of the console were greeted with empty store shelves. This year, leadership at Nintendo, including Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime, has told reporters repeatedly that once again it's unlikely the company will be able to meet demand for the Wii this shopping season.



The company has ramped up production to try to stem the shortfall, according to Perrin Kaplan, vice president of marketing and corporate affairs at Nintendo of America.


"Since [Fils-Aime] made that statement, we have raised our production yet again," Kaplan told ABCNEWS.com in a recent interview. "I've been at Nintendo a long time, and I have never seen us ramp our numbers up so many times, nor have we ever produced so much of any console. … But the demand has just so far exceeded our expectations. It's fabulous. We want consumers to know that we're completely aware, love them for it."


Kaplan urged customers to to wait for extra consoles to hit the retail shelves.


"Those who haven't been able to find it -- just hang in there. We're moving stuff into retail as fast as we can."


Although analysts didn't predict what consumers would buy, they did say that parents who want to put a gaming console under the tree this holiday season will do so, whether it's a Wii, an Xbox 360 or a PS3.


"On one hand shortages create a certain amount of demand in and of itself. People are always wanting things that they can't get," said Michael Gartenberg, vice president and research director of Jupiter Research. "On the other hand, shortages create consumer frustration. The real question is how much will we see the Wii in demand. Will it be spot shortages? Ultimately, if you look hard enough, will you be able to find it? Or is it the type of shortage that will increase customer frustration?"


According to Gartenberg, this holiday season is an extremely important one for console sales. It's no longer the early adopters who are waiting all night in line for the Wii, the PS3 or the Xbox 360. The reviews are in, and now the regular consumers -- families, teens, kids -- will determine gaming companies' success or failure.


"The real question is what is the main consumer going to vote [for] with their wallet?" he said. "[But] Nintendo has won a lot of hearts and minds with what it has done with the Wii."



Price Cuts and Sales Swings
With or without the Wii shortage, Sony's price cut will probably mean sales boost for the PS3 this season, said Anita Frasier, a research analyst who works in video games at the NPD Group.



"Our purchase intent studies do show that there are quite a number of consumers that are indeed price sensitive, and indicated they would wait for a price cut to make a purchase," Frasier said. "The combination of the price cut and entering the all-important holiday season should result in a substantial increase in sales of PS3 hardware."


Although unconfirmed reports are circulating today that the PS3 has managed for the first time to outsell the Wii in Japan, NPD's most recent sales figures paint a picture of a strong position for a Nintendo that is still on top. About 121,000 PS3s were sold in the United States in October, according to NPD. Nintendo sold more than four times that with 519,000.


But could the tide turn for Sony?


Rob Enderle, the principal analyst at the Silicon Valley-based Enderle Group, said he believes Nintendo is missing out big by not having enough stock this holiday season.


"The fallover is on the product you can pick up. The reality is by not having enough product they're missing out on market share. … If you don't have enough product, it benefits somebody else," Enderle said. "This is not a market that's particularly patient."


The shortages are especially problematic for the Wii during the holidays, Enderle said, because the console is marketed to families, and families are so often gathered together during the week between Christmas and New Year's Day.


"Sales drop off on consoles after the end of the year. Wii plays more to family purchase," he said. "But by buying it during January, people won't be able to go in the 'way back' machine" and bond over games of Wii Tennis.



But for people determined to get their hands on a Wii, there is hope. Consumers just need to act fast, meaning before this Friday, he said. Shoppers may also have luck with existing stock at gaming stores in shopping malls.


"It's worth when you're out and around [to check] some of these places that have these games, but don't get the gamers in," he said. "But after Black Friday that's pretty much all going to go bye-bye."


Nintendo DS Lite versus Sony PSP


As many brave souls braved the darkened streets last night, anxiously queuing up to be the first Brits to get their hands on the newly released Nintendo DS Lite handheld games console, I was tucked up at home getting my first go on the latest must have gadget and in the European exclusive, case too. Was it because Nintendo holds me in such high esteem that I get an early look? Errr, no - I mail ordered it and must have got lucky. But I believe in passing my good fortune down to you the readers, so I bring you the ultimate battle of the handheld consoles: DS Lite vs PSP.



Design
It was no secret that the original DS was, and still is, a bit of an ugly duckling. When the PSP launched, gamers were falling over each other just to be seen near it, where as people were generally less enthralled by the DS' design and some may have quietly blanched. Although the DS Lite offers upgrades in many areas, its greatest success has been turning the handheld into what may go down in history as a stylistic icon. Bringing the inner beauty out of the original and placing it firmly on the outside has produced a shiny, slick, smooth device that people will probably stop you on the street just to look at. The button layout has been nicely tweaked and the surface is just better for holding too.


But the PSP is anywhere near on this count. The beautiful X-Black coated screen simply oozes beautiful graphics and the elongated, curved edged chassis constantly reminds me of a Game Gear or Atari Lynx but with a very 21st century twist. Being a gadget fanatic, the sheer number of buttons around the console appeals by far more than the rival's minimalist approach - how can any electronic toy really live up to its hype without having more buttons than you can count? Mind you, those controls you really need are well placed and seldom difficult to access in times of need.



Games
I don't think there's any doubt in anyone's mind that, when it comes to high standards of gameplay, the DS is really where it's at. While the DS Lite hasn't adapted this aspect to be any different than the original system, Nintendo has secured an enormous number of brilliant, innovative tiles for the console. The touchscreen system added an entirely new element of gameplay exploited well by early titles such as Wario Ware Touched and diversified into games like Metroid Prime: Hunters and of course Nintendogs. Nintendo has achieved it's goal of setting a huge benchmark against which few other companies dare to even try and compete with, but also reached out to customers previously never thought of as 'gamers' with the likes of Brain Age. Then you have the unique Nintendo Wi-Fi Connection which basically blew away any doubts you might have harboured about the device's wireless connection - with it you can now plug into a multiplayer network that all but rivals Microsoft's Xbox Live and doesn't contain quite as many obnoxious players - titles like Animal Crossing: Wild World have further driven home the concept of multiplayer gaming for everyone and not just an over-zealous few.


The PSP has instead relied mostly on pretty graphics (but they are often very pretty graphics) rather than gameplay and innovation. There have been a few impressive technical achievements such as GTA: Liberty City Stories which managed to capture the nearly all the elements of GTA that made it such a successful series and port it to the much smaller system. Actually it is games like Lumines in which the PSP really excels - bright, pretty titles with more basic gameplay are far more suited to the console, but rarely threaten to break conceptual barriers in the same manner as the DS. Unfortunately, the PSP now seems to be languishing in a kind of gaming no man's land, with a large proportion of its catalogue taken up by handheld ports of other home console titles.




Multimedia
This is one area in which the DS struggles, but that is simply because Nintendo is all about games - an ethos that has been stated time and time again. In fact there are a few multimedia options out there, ranging from the Play-Yan Micro to the upcoming Opera web browser and the enhanced brightness levels offered by the DS Lite could prove just the ticket for increasing the multimedia features in the device.


However, if there is one thing that the PSP is truly the king of, it is multimedia. With MP3, WMA and AAC music playback as standard now, alongside an inbuilt web browser with its innovative internet text entry system, the PSP reigns supreme. Most important of all is the MPEG4 video player which, when coupled with a 1GB Memory Stick PRO Duo, means you can store somewhere in the region of 5 hours of video at once if you're careful. With that in hand you have pretty much all bases covered: a few tunes for the walk, then movies and a couple of quick games for when you're sat on the bus and all lovingly displayed on a crisp, wide screen. Sony's ongoing dedication to increasing the functionality of the device through firmware upgrades has served it incredibly well. Recently, additions such as LocationFree functionality, Flash and RSS compatibility have really been milking the most out of the system, specifically its wireless connection. Unfortunately it hasn't all been a success story - UMD discs have been largely written off by most critics as an expensive and, if you have virtually any computer savvy, pointless alternative to buying the DVD version.



Final Thoughts
When I started this article I thought it would be easy to pick a clear winner, but with both consoles laid out in front of me it is still a difficult decision. If you just want to play games, and good games at that, the DS Lite is a neat gadget that now looks good enough to be seen with. Every aspect of the design, from the ultra-bright screen to the unbelievably long battery life, is geared towards giving you a great gaming experience. The PSP loses in this aspect because of the weak titles, long load times and somewhat limited battery life. However it makes up for it in the sheer number of things you can do with it.


I'm forced to make a choice and I think that there are just a couple of reasons why Sony's console should at last lose out to the Nintendo console. With the DS Lite, everything is set out ready to play - getting it all ready to go is a very simple and fast affair. Conversely, when using the PSP, you often get the impression that Sony would rather not have you doing what the device really does best. Sure you can play MPEG4 videos, but to get them onto the device can be a complicated affair - you need some know-how because Sony would by far rather have you buying the UMD. Even the Wi-Fi connection needs to be backed up by a wireless router, where as Nintendo is thoughtfully releasing a USB Wi-Fi adaptor designed to make the process simple.


I therefore declare the DS Lite the winner of this round - now we just need to wait and see how the new generation of home consoles, the PS3 and Wii, will interact with the two handhelds before we have the next showdown..








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