The low pressure weather system which Thursday morning moved across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to transform into a tropical system over the next couple of days, several forecasters warned. The National Hurricane Center dispatched a reconnaissance aircraft to investigate, which found a broad circulation centered about 115 miles west-southwest of St. Petersburg, Florida but which doesn't yet have tropical characteristics.
However, things are likely to change fast over the next days as it moves west-northwestward over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and away from the Bay area. The National Weather Service said that current conditions favor the low-pressure system becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone today before making landfall. The storm might move across Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, although areas such as the Florida Panhandle will be affected as well.
"We're certainly continuing to watch it and hoping it moves west before it fully develops," said Mr. Mark Bowen, chief of Bay County emergency services. "It's still not too late for folks to prepare," he added.
It seems unlikely the storm could be stronger than a Category 1 hurricane, with top winds of 95 mph. However, flooding and wind damage can occur even at much lower wind speeds. The federal Minerals Management Service announced that oil industry workers have left five production platforms in the gulf, and three drilling rigs have been evacuated. However, there has been no known decrease in the production of oil and natural gas in the Gulf. A typical tropical storm carries sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph. Katrina, which killed hundreds of people and flooded most of New Orleans, entered land as a Category 3 storm, with sustained winds of more than 111 mph.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami advised people with interests along the northern Gulf coast to monitor the system.
"With Louisiana still suffering from the ravages of Katrina and having so many residents living in travel trailers and mobile homes, we feel it's prudent at this time less than 36 hours out from the onset of landfall, to recommend the governor make the declaration," Mark Smith, a spokesman for the Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, said. The state's governor, Kathleen Blanco, declared a state of emergency late Thursday, putting the National Guard on alert and school buses, ambulances and evacuation shelter workers on standby.
In Mississippi, officials handed out sandbags Thursday in coastal areas, as Gov. Haley Barbour warned residents in a telephone message not to panic but to be prepared.
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Tropical storm warnings have been posted for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast as a subtropical depression looms in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.
The warnings are in effect from Apalachicola, Fla., westward to the mouth of the Mississippi River -- including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
According to the NHC's advisory, maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a subtropical or tropical storm" later Friday, the advisory said.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore flow.
Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared a precautionary state of emergency, advising parishes to call for the evacuation of residents in low-lying areas and those living in trailers. The governor has school buses, ambulance support, National Guard transportation assets and shelter staff on standby, according to a statement from her office.
Plaquemines Parish President Bill Nungesser said school would be in session Friday for the entire parish. No decisions have been made about evacuations, as the system has yet to organize or strengthen, he said.
"We have deployed flood-fighting equipment Tropical storm warnings have been posted for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast as a subtropical depression looms in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.
The warnings are in effect from Apalachicola, Fla., westward to the mouth of the Mississippi River -- including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
According to the NHC's advisory, maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a subtropical or tropical storm" later Friday, the advisory said.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore flow.
Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared a precautionary state of emergency, advising parishes to call for the evacuation of residents in low-lying areas and those living in trailers. The governor has school buses, ambulance support, National Guard transportation assets and shelter staff on standby, according to a statement from her office.
Plaquemines Parish President Bill Nungesser said school would be in session Friday for the entire parish. No decisions have been made about evacuations, as the system has yet to organize or strengthen, he said.
"We have deployed flood-fighting equipment to those flood-prone areas of our parish, and feel that we are as prepared as possible in the event that this weather system threatens," Nungesser said in a statement.
He and other parish leaders planned to meet again Friday morning.
Emergency managers in St. Bernard Parish said they'll follow the lead of New Orleans when it comes to evacuations.
Residents in Jefferson Parish are being asked to clean out the storm drains, and emergency crews are preparing to open shelters for people living in FEMA trailers. Parish pump stations are working and fully staffed. to those flood-prone areas of our parish, and feel that we are as prepared as possible in the event that this weather system threatens," Nungesser said in a statement.
He and other parish leaders planned to meet again Friday morning.
Emergency managers in St. Bernard Parish said they'll follow the lead of New Orleans when it comes to evacuations.
Residents in Jefferson Parish are being asked to clean out the storm drains, and emergency crews are preparing to open shelters for people living in FEMA trailers. Parish pump stations are working and fully staffed.
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